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The Coming Insurance Crisis
Just capturing this prediction for the future…
As climate change leads to more frequent and powerful weather events—at the moment I’m thinking about Hawaii’s $1B in flood damage—there will come a point where insurance companies, despite having culled policies and reinforced their re-insurance, will have to stop covering entire geographic areas that are otherwise commercially active and important, e.g. Hawaii.
The government will step in to help somehow, but that won’t be sustainable given the scale and frequency of losses. Unless politicians somehow hoodwink the vast majority into paying for a minority that insists on living and working in disaster-prone areas. New Orleans and parts of California will be the test cases, and eventually Miami etc.
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Designing Assistant Technology by Christopher Noessel
Claude, list the 10 most important and practical lessons from this book.
I now have a thorough understanding of the book. Here are the 10 most important and practical lessons from Designing Assistant Technology by Christopher Noessel:
1. Usability alone is not enough — AI must also upskill users. Google Maps is excellently designed yet makes users worse at navigation over time. The bar for good AI design isn’t just “does it work?” but “does it make the person better?”
2. The “Human Goes First” pattern is the most powerful anti-dependence tool. Periodically have users complete a task before seeing the AI’s recommendation, then compare results. This preserves skills, bypasses anchoring bias, and creates teachable moments when the AI outperforms the human.
3. AI + human pairs outperform humans alone — but only when AI is correct. Studies show 40% quality gains with AI assistance. But when AI is confidently wrong, users become 6.4x worse. The goal is “appropriate reliance,” not maximum reliance.
4. Use the Five Universal Assists as a design checklist. Every way AI can help maps to: Perceive (notice what matters), Know (understand the situation), Plan (decide what to do), Perform (execute actions), Reflect (learn from outcomes). Use these five to audit your product for gaps.
5. Cognitive forcing functions (CFFs) reduce overreliance — even when users hate them. Interventions that require users to think before accepting AI output (on-demand recommendations, waiting, partial explanations) measurably improve decisions, even though users prefer the simpler AI. Set expectations with your team: qualitative feedback will be negative; measure objective performance.
6. Partial explanations beat full ones for keeping users engaged. Showing users part of the AI’s reasoning — enough to prompt thinking but not enough to shortcut it — reduces overreliance better than full transparency. The goal is to make users “complete” the reasoning themselves.
7. Not everything is worth learning — apply pace layers thinking. Fast-changing information (real-time traffic, current prices) isn’t worth internalizing. Slow-changing knowledge (professional skills, recurring workflows) absolutely is. Design skill-preservation interventions only where the information is stable enough to be worth keeping in a human head.
8. Treat all users as high-NFC (deep thinkers) by default. Users differ in “need for cognition” — their preference for fast vs. analytical thinking. Low-NFC users are at greater overreliance risk. Since cognitive-style-personalized interfaces are expensive, unpopular, and currently show weak effects, defaulting to on-demand AI recommendations (the high-NFC design) produces better outcomes across the board.
9. The “Focus Bean” principle: occasional uncertainty sharpens attention. Inserting rare, intentional challenges into routine AI-assisted work — a hidden test case, a fake fraud flag, a deliberate uncertainty — keeps users cognitively engaged without constant friction. Borrowed from the Mardi Gras King Cake tradition: the possibility of something unusual makes people pay closer attention.
10. Assistants vs. agents is a critical distinction — don’t confuse them. Agents act on your behalf while your attention is elsewhere. Assistants help while your attention is on the task. Most AI products blur this, often defaulting to agent behavior when assistant behavior would preserve human skill and judgment. The right question: “Who is doing the work, and should the human be more involved?”
The book’s core thesis in one sentence: well-designed AI should make the human more capable after using it, not less.
Does the author make any points that are significantly different than other writing on this topic?
Yes, a few stand out as genuinely distinctive:
The empirical optimism about de-skilling reversal. Most writing on AI and cognitive dependence is either alarmed (we’re getting dumber) or dismissive (tools always replace skills, that’s fine). Noessel’s virtual commute experiment is unusual in claiming that a minimal intervention — just two sessions of post-decision feedback — flipped a 48% performance collapse into a 19% performance gain. That’s a surprisingly strong claim, and he’s honest that the data was lost in a laptop crash. Most authors in this space don’t have even scrappy empirical data of their own.
“Appropriate reliance” as a business argument, not just an ethical one. The dominant framing in responsible AI writing is ethical — de-skilling is bad for people. Noessel deliberately reframes it as a business risk: overreliance costs money during the 99.9% of the time AI is running, not just during outages. This is a pragmatic wedge aimed at getting product owners to care who otherwise wouldn’t. It’s a more politically savvy argument than most.
Privileging “Human Goes First” above all other cognitive forcing functions. The CFF research (Buçinca et al.) is real and cited by others, but Noessel goes further by arguing designers should treat Human Goes First as the default pattern and only deviate with good reason. Most design writing presents a toolkit of options without ranking them. He takes a clear position.
Distinguishing assistants from agents as a design discipline, not just an architecture concern. The agent/assistant distinction exists in AI literature, but it’s usually about backend architecture (“agentic pipelines”). Noessel argues it’s a front-end, UX concern with completely different design implications. That reframing is fairly original — most UX writing hasn’t caught up to it.
Where he’s less distinctive: the Five Universal Assists (Perceive/Know/Plan/Perform/Reflect) are a clean framework but largely a synthesis of existing cognitive science models he acknowledges (Norman’s action cycle, OODA loop, etc.). And the cognitive style / NFC material is mostly reporting Buçinca’s research, where his own small study actually weakenedthe case rather than strengthened it.
The most honest summary: the book’s originality is less in any single breakthrough idea and more in being the first to synthesize these threads specifically through a designer’s lens, with design patterns as the output. That’s a real contribution, just not a revolutionary one.
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Make Your Web UI Feel Better
Several nice tips here. I make a lot of financial products, and the tabular numbers is key.
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Agent for Sale
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Thanks out.
Notes
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“Not a browser in a laptop costume.”
Sam Henri Gold, on the MacBook Neo, reminds us what our first computers are for:
Yes, you will hit the limits of this machine. 8GB of RAM and a phone chip will see to that. But the limits you hit on the Neo are resource limits — memory is finite, silicon has a clock speed, processes cost something. You are learning physics. A Chromebook doesn’t teach you that. A Chromebook’s ceiling is made of web browser, and the things you run into are not the edges of computing but the edges of a product category designed to save you from yourself. The kid who tries to run Blender on a Chromebook doesn’t learn that his machine can’t handle it. He learns that Google decided he’s not allowed to. Those are completely different lessons.
I hit that limit on a Timex Sinclair 1000. With 1K of RAM, there’s enough to do something and the necessity to make it efficient. My next computer was a Commodore 64 which was quite powerful but I never had the software tools to find the hardware edges, and I wasn’t a good enough programmer to find them myself. It wasn’t until I had a Mac that I downloaded apps like Audacity and discovered how hard the Mac had to work to twist and shape audio.
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Less Future
William Gibson: “The future is already here — it’s just not evenly distributed.”
I used to be proud to be in a place of more future, but as I age I appreciate being in a place of less future.
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Gen X and Screens
Gen X (born ~1965–1980)is the first to experience screens shifting from novelty to dominant work tool across their careers.
…
They entered the workforce in the mid-80s through 90s, precisely when PCs became standard office equipment
Psychological impacts researchers associate with this shift (for screen-dominant workers generally):
- Attention fragmentation — constant task-switching rewired expectations for stimulation and reduced deep-focus tolerance
- Blurred work/life boundaries — screens made work portable and therefore endless, accelerating always-on anxiety
- Sedentary stress accumulation — physical stillness combined with cognitive hyperactivation is a mismatch our nervous systems handle poorly
- Identity shift — knowledge work became increasingly abstract and harder to feel “done,” contributing to chronic low-grade dissatisfaction
- Reduced embodied experience — less physical, tactile work correlates with higher rates of anxiety and disconnection
…
(Written by Claude, edited by me)
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Take Control
There are four ways we die:
a medical condition
an accident
murder
suicide.
Most of us leave it to chance.
Maybe we should live so fiercely we kill ourselves.
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A Shodo Pedal
I love Japanese calligraphy. Recently I was sitting in a dark cube watching archival Japanese wartime footage in an exhibition at the Hamburg Kunsthalle and realized I should flex my Shodo muscles on my guitar pedal.
I kinda screwed up though. I envisioned the painting over the raw aluminum, like this:

But I when I primed the metal the primer was solid gray. The brush strokes came out decently but not as dramatic as the concept. Still, not bad for a first attempt…



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What if AI is safer than humans?
There was a wonderful futurist scenario a few years back where Mothers Against Drunk Driving were protesting the few human drivers still on the road, because they (not the autonomous vehicles) were the source of accidents. That came to mind when my best friend recently made an app with Google’s Gemini and sent it to me. Here’s the warning screen I received:

An app created… BY A PERSON! Shocking! How could we let this happen? Who knows what it might do? Steal my information? Spread false information? Tempt me into spending all my money? Sounds pretty dangerous. I’ll stick with App-created apps, thank you.
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I’m making a guitar pedal
It’s a pedal for listening to your pedals. An amplifier and a speaker in a guitar pedal enclosure. It’ll sit on your pedal board next to your other pedals and come on the road with them. It’ll run on the same 9 volt power as your other pedals; no additional wall wart needed.
I’m about eight months in on this process, doing work on nights weekends, or not. If I end up selling it I’ll call the company omomo, and this first product the GOGO 01. Here’s the second working prototype:
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HTTPSing
Once HTTPS was complex and expensive. I remember working at a bank in 1998ish and buying a certificate for the website and installing in on the Netscape server and generally thinking I was a very good webmaster.
At some point the additional friction (i.e. speed) become negligible and the slogan was “let’s HTTPS everything because security!” And yes, I said, that makes sense.
But I didn’t here, on my blog, because… why?
But recently I joined an online community and you could only supply a blog URL if it was HTTPS. Huh.
Then someone else said when you open a HTTP link in WhatsApp it automatically uses HTTPS and the link breaks. Yes, that’s what happens to me.
So alright. Things change. I need to change, sometimes. (As I get older, in my 50’s now, I don’t want to be the old guy that never updates himself, but I also don’t want to be the guy that chases inane trends. So I wait these things out, and on this point I’m ready to move)
So I went to my host and it’s like real money to get a certificate. Jeez.
Luckily there’s Reddit, who reminded me about https://letsencrypt.org which is 0 moneys. So now that’s on my to-do list.
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I am going back to blogging
I don’t want my writing muscles to get weak
I miss the common place we had on Twitter to get updates on friends. Sigh.
Writing on LinkedIn feels like marketing at the expense of feeding the LinkedIn beast, and I don’t really want to do either of those things.
Gave up on Facebook a while ago.
Instagram is also mostly a marketing machine, or a waste-your-life machine, or a machine for feeding your ego. I still use it but I’m not sure I should.
I have thoughts I can only think through by writing them, and there’s something gravitational about publicly publishing them rather than keeping them in Notes on my phone and laptop.
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My 2025 Rome Recommendation: Don’t Go
Don’t go, if you can help it. Rome, from the perspective of a visitor in 2025, spirals viciously with reinforcing cycles of increasing tourists and increasing attractions for tourists and increasing tourists…
Which might be inevitable. The sheer volume of masterpieces in the Vatican museum alone is staggering; in a single day not only can you not hope to see it all, your brain is oversaturated well before reaching the Sistine Chapel. Everyone walks past a room with a handful of Dali paintings without noticing; the mind has no room for them.
The Pantheon is breathtaking in its architectural beauty. The palimpsest excesses of decoration over the centuries only slightly tarnish the perfection of the design. It hurts to tell you not to see it.
I was there in October and still there were hordes of tourists. I shudder to think what more crowds combined with the oppressive heat of summer feels like. Even the Colosseum struggles to compete for your attention.
Perhaps one, or two days. Skip Campo de’ Fiori. Skip Piazza Navona. Then go to another town where you’ll experience actual Italy; not an English-speaking series of trinkets and tours and consumer opportunities.